Model and Empirical Research on Passengers' Travel Mode Choice in the Context of Competition between High-Speed Rail and Air Express Lines
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55578/isgm.2605.007Keywords:
Air express service, High-speed rail, Air–rail competition, Multinomial logit model, Travel mode choiceAbstract
This study investigates passengers’ travel mode choice under competitive conditions between high-speed rail (HSR) and air express services. It identifies and analyzes the key factors influencing passengers’ preference for HSR versus air express, and develops a quantitative model to estimate market share. A structured questionnaire was designed to capture passengers’ socio-economic attributes, latent preferences, and perceptions of travel mode characteristics. Over 300 valid responses were collected. Employing the Multinomial logit (MNL) model and choice probability framework, the analysis adopts the maximization of passengers’ comprehensive utility as the underlying decision criterion. Grounded in utility theory, a six-dimensional utility function is formulated-encompassing safety and reliability, time efficiency, economic cost, service frequency, convenience, and comfort-and the corresponding utility coefficients are calibrated via maximum likelihood estimation. Model results indicate that time efficiency, economic cost, and safety and reliability are the most significant determinants of passengers’ travel mode choice. Finally, the choice probabilities for HSR and air express services are computed. The findings offer an evidence-based reference for transportation policy formulation and strategic decision-making by industry stakeholders.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Min Feng, Dongchen Zhang, Jingyun Wu (Author)
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